6 Minute Read
6 Minute Read
Quicksand and the Quest for Momentum
I caught my first Cardinals’ game this year—taking on the less-than-mighty Cubbies. I’ve tried to avoid the Redbirds. Why? It’s the data. In March, I plugged the team’s 2023 stats into a statistical engine to see if the offseason moves might make a difference. Is this an improved club? A year ago, I came into the season with optimism—Arenado and Goldy were coming back. And signing a free-swinging catcher should have bumped the offense to new heights.
But I was disappointed. The blueprint didn’t work. The game had changed. This was a historically poor baseball team.
Yet, I remain hopeful. The 2023 squad proved an unlucky team in key spots. The numbers say as much. A hit here or there would have changed the season around.
But the hard shot into the gap or squibbler to centerfield just never materialized. They finished with the worst record in decades. During the offseason, the team’s GM declared pitching, pitching, and more pitching. I think the front office failed to understand putting the ball in play matters too.
Still, in my analytical model, this is an improved team. Gray. Lynn. Reliable bullpen with a healthy hammer as closer.
But, alas, it’s only a marginal improvement. They appear slightly better than .500, frustratingly so. The lineup stacks up on the manager’s card, but something doesn’t work.
Rivalry Game Recap
With a 1-0 lead, the Cubbies had a runner at first against Pallante, who remained unscathed into the 4th. To avoid the double play, the manager called a hit and run, the player sprinted in motion. The batter, being a dead pull hitter, swung away. Yet, Wynn, playing short, ran to cover the throw at second. A simple ground out morphed into runners at first and third. The announcers figured the Cardinals had their reasons for Wynn leaving to cover the bag; however, they couldn’t come up with one. Perhaps statistics? Conditions on the field? Magical intuition?
And Oli, the Card’s manager, finding himself in quicksand, immediately changed pitchers despite having an overused bullpen. The starter had thrown less than 60 pitches. Minutes later, the North Siders took advantage of an untested rookie and led 2-1. They proceeded to win the game. Ugh.
Give the Cubs Credit; They Made Their Own Luck
With major league-caliber players, it’s a game of inches. Execution matters. The little things matter—a yearning for perfection.
But why do certain teams ensure the second baseman covers the bag? Why do the Cardinals haphazardly make pitching moves, playing the part of a lesser Tony Larussa during a playoff run? I don’t believe Wynn made this error on his own. He’s played countless games.
The Crux
Momentum. The Cardinals need to find it. And that doesn’t necessarily mean it always has to be on the scoreboard. In sales, leaders often make this mistake. Why does one rep sell more than another? Of course, the data has to tell us something. One gets what they track, right?
Depending on your industry of choice, there are an infinite number of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for driving teams. In consulting, utilization rate is king. For other roles, it might be phone calls made, emails sent, or carrier pigeons flying. Magic happens in Salesforce pipeline reports. If your close rate multiplied by the total pipeline doesn’t exceed the assigned quota or team goal, how does one change the trajectory of said business?
But meeting targets doesn’t happen overnight. Great companies aren’t made quickly either. Sure, everyone wants a quick fix or latch on to the illusion that it can happen. I love this article about how NVIDIA, a company we’ve never heard and cannot pronounce the name of, is now challenging the likes of Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft. The creators of the H100 came from nowhere.1 Yes, the article glosses over how they built a software and hardware platform to render a new generation of video game development. And then, their rigs became the gold standard for Bitcoin mining. These learnings were then used to build Large Language Models (LLMs) at the heart of the recent AI revolution. Yes, these market pivots happened overnight. I jest. This took decades.
I’m sure there were setbacks along the journey. But how did management avoid the quicksand? If sales slump, it’s tempting to grasp onto something new, creating a new call model or sales play. Or, in baseball terms, yank the pitcher too early instead of letting it ride.
Through the years, I’ve always gravitated to simple business models. Choose metrics that are understandable, those that everyone can get behind. Use one or two for stretch goals. Also, I’ve tried to avoid the temptation to make every metric about the scoreboard because it’s more of a reflection of what’s already happened. Sure, calls made, proposals delivered, and marketing leads don’t make payroll. I get it. But NVIDIA’s success didn’t happen overnight nor do massive software as a service transactions. When you’re in quicksand, deals don’t fall from the sky. But anyone can make a sales call. And there is always the old adage, If you’re not selling, start driving. One call leads to the next. Cheer each one. Find the thunderous applause. Build momentum.
And yet, the Cardinals will win two games and then go on a three game losing streak. It’s the pattern. But if you glance around the league, there are the Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies (maybe the Braves) and everyone else. Is the Redbirds season a lost cause? Time to turn on SEC football? M-I-Z, baby.
As I packed for a trip, I stumbled upon a waded up, faded blue and red baseball cap in the corner drawer. I haven’t worn it in years. The logo, St. Louis Cardinals 2006 World Champions. They were never supposed to win, arguably the worst team on paper to take home the trophy. Sure, with the game on the line, I wouldn’t bet against Chris Carpenter facing off the best in any era.2 But they had no chance to make the playoffs until they played the Cubs six times in a short span. My memory is faulty but Scott Spiezo sparked them to victory after a series of fluke plays. No, it wasn’t a pitching performance. Or home run.
A blown play. Then, it cascaded.
If you’ve never watched The Perfect Game, it’s one of my favorite baseball movies. An aging Tiger’s ace is pitching his last act against the vaunted Yankees. It’s a throw-away game—the team can’t make the playoffs. Most of the movie revolves around recollections and flashbacks. Typically, I’d say movies and books using this storytelling method shouldn’t work.
But, for me, I loved it. He’s just pitching, thinking about his past life, including the mistakes he made. And when Kevin Costner stares up at the scoreboard—because Kevin Costner should play the lead in every epic sports movie—he pauses, a dumbfounded hesitation at what’s staring him in the face, then glances at his catcher and asks, “Has anyone been on base?”
The catcher, played by John C. Reilly, answers, “This, I ain’t seen much of…”
Costner, who decided to throw hard during warm-ups, replies, “I don’t know if I have anything left.”
And Reilly, “Chappy, you just throw whatever you go, whatever’s left. The boys are all here for you; we’ll back you up. We’ll be there. Because Billy, we don’t stink right now. We’re the best team in baseball, right now, this minute, because of you … Just throw.”3
Momentum. Where does it come from? Well, the answer isn’t always found in a spreadsheet. The stats don’t always matter. Sure, on paper, the Yankees or Dodgers should win it all in 2024. Yet, maybe …
As I ran my fingers over my dusty ball cap, I whispered, “Anything can happen.”
